Predicting Streamflow in the Mackenzie Valley:

Today’s Techniques and Tomorrow’s Solutions

Yellowknife, Northwest Territories

March 8 and 9, 2004

Water Survey of Canada and the Canadian Society for Hydrological Sciences

Most streamflow information for infrastructure design in the Northwest Territories must be predicted using a sparse monitoring network.  In light of the Northwest Territories’ rapidly expanding economy, and the success of current and ongoing scientific initiatives such as the Mackenzie GEWEX Study (MAGS), and the new IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), it was considered prudent to hold a workshop to discuss how to improve our community’s abilities to predict streamflow in this cold region of Canada. The present workshop’s objectives were to 1) provide outreach to practitioners of the results of recent studies in cold regions hydrological regimes in the context of predicting streamflow, 2) assess “state of the art” techniques to predict streamflow in ungauged basins in northern landscapes and 3) define technical needs and recommend a research agenda that can deliver these over the next decade.

The workshop was attended by 53 participants from government regulatory agencies, water research institutes, academia, private industry and consultants from Canada, the United States, Russia and Australia. Presentations were delivered over two mornings by:

Dr. Alexander Gelfan, Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Dr. Christopher Spence, Hydrometeorology and Arctic Laboratory, Environment Canada

Dr. Ken Snelgrove, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Manitoba

Dr. Bill Quinton, Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University

Dr. Sivapalan, Centre for Water Research, University of Western Australia

Dr. Lawrence Martz, Department of Geography, University of Saskatchewan

Dr. John Pomeroy, Department of Geography, University of Saskatchewan

Dr. Alain Pietroniro, National Water Research Institute, Environment Canada

Dr. Kevin Shook of Alberta Environment and Dr. Danny Marks of the USDA Agricultural Research Service lead the afternoon discussions of how to improve our community’s ability to predict streamflow in the Mackenzie Valley and similar environments.  There was general consensus that only improved understanding of the entire hydrological cycle will reduce the uncertainty associated with streamflow prediction. Smaller space and shortest time scales were identified as priorities because they are presently the most problematic in terms of prediction and design.  The foundation of those tools used to reduce predictive uncertainty is a strong sustainable hydrometric network that responds to current, immediate needs and anticipates future demands. A nested basin monitoring configuration in conjunction with research at different scales may be most suitable for the support of the development of new predictive tools such as water budget (vs. only streamflow) models and scale transfer techniques.  Research should focus on hydrological processes, scale transferability, model parameterization and model development.

There was a call from the participants to organize a working group, with linkages to IAHS’s PUB initiative, to carry the momentum generated by the workshop and find ways to enact some of these recommendations. A partnership is needed with policy and in-kind support from governments and capitalization support from industry and academic funding agencies.  The workshop proceedings will be published as a book by the Canadian Water Resources Association in late 2004 or early 2005 and will better scope out many of these issues, ideas and recommendations. It is hoped that this document will act as a reference for streamflow prediction in the Mackenzie Valley for both regulators and practitioners.

Participants were pleased with the venue and locale of the workshop. They were able to experience a piece of the northern way of life with an opportunity to drive dog teams into a secluded lake side cabin for a supper of caribou stew and bannock.   The organizers had hoped for clear skies and brilliant aurora borealis, but instead were provided with a mild snowstorm. The organizers would like to thank all the financial sponsors; the Water Survey of Canada, Environment Canada’s Environmental Protection Branch, the Canadian Society for Hydrological Sciences, the Mackenzie GEWEX Study, Golder Associates, Shell Canada and AMEC Earth and Environmental. Their support ensured a successful workshop.